​​​Building Antifragile Arctic Systems through a Nexus Approach​​

A major challenge is to govern the Finnish Arctic in a way that secures critical resources, strengthens national preparedness, safeguards ecosystems and livelihoods, and supports legitimate decision-making under rapidly increasing uncertainty. Accelerated warming, changing snow and ice conditions, altered river regimes, hydrological variability, and expanding economic activities are creating new pressures on water systems, energy production, food and bioresources, ecosystems, infrastructure, reindeer herding, fisheries, tourism, and local communities. These pressures interact across sectors and scales, creating cascading and compound risks that challenge fragmented and sector-specific governance systems. The Water–Energy–Food–Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus refers to the interdependencies between water resources, energy systems, food and bioresource-based livelihoods, and ecosystem functions. In the Finnish Arctic, these interdependencies are especially visible in northern river basins, where hydropower production, flood regulation, fisheries, reindeer herding, biodiversity, land use, and settlement safety are closely connected. Cascading events occur when a disturbance in one part of the system, such as rapid snowmelt, river regulation or unstable ice conditions, triggers consequences across other parts of the system, including floods, hydropower operations, fish habitats, reindeer herding, mobility and local safety. Hydropower in northern river basins is central to Finland’s regulation power and energy security, but changes in flow regimes, water levels and ice dynamics can affect aquatic ecosystems, fisheries, sediment transport, flood risks, local livelihoods and perceptions of fairness.

Existing governance and planning systems are not sufficiently equipped to address these interconnected changes. Monitoring systems are often fragmented, decision-making responsibilities are distributed across sectors and administrative levels, and scientific, Sámi and local knowledge are not consistently integrated into operational planning. Conventional approaches often aim at robustness, meaning the ability to resist shocks, or resilience, meaning the ability to recover after disturbances. These capacities remain important, but they are not enough under repeated and uncertain Arctic change. NAFAS advances the concept of antifragility in Arctic resource governance. Antifragility refers to the capacity of governance, monitoring and decision-support systems to learn from variability and disturbances, improve through them, and anticipate future risks rather than merely react after damage has occurred.

NAFAS develops an antifragile governance framework for Arctic WEFE systems in Finland. It will increase understanding of how climate-driven variability, hydropower regulation, land-use pressures, ecosystem change and socio-economic development interact across the WEFE nexus. It will identify how cascading and compound risks propagate through Arctic socio-ecological systems, how different system components resist, recover from or improve through disturbances, and what kinds of governance arrangements enable more anticipatory, inclusive and learning-oriented responses.

A focal point of the research is real-life experimentation and co-creation in two contrasting Living Labs: the Lake Inari basin and the Kemijoki River basin. Lake Inari represents an Arctic basin where ecosystem change, lake regulation, fisheries, reindeer herding, Sámi and local livelihoods, cultural values and transboundary governance are closely connected. Kemijoki represents a highly regulated and infrastructure-intensive river basin where hydropower production, flood risk management, ecological impacts, land use and regional development create complex governance trade-offs. Together, these Living Labs allow NAFAS to examine different Arctic nexus dynamics and develop transferable solutions for other Arctic and northern regions.

NAFAS will combine adaptive monitoring, integrated nexus modelling, inclusive governance analysis, collaborative decision support and strategic foresight. It will develop multi-source monitoring systems that integrate field observations, remote sensing, Earth observation, IoT technologies and community-based monitoring to detect early signals of change. It will build system dynamics and nexus models to analyse non-linear feedbacks, trade-offs and synergies between water, energy, food, bioresources and ecosystems. It will study how institutions, planning practices, policy instruments, stakeholder interaction and Sámi and local knowledge shape risk interpretation, legitimacy and decision-making. Scientific outputs will be translated into geospatial decision-support tools, dashboards, visualizations and participatory modelling processes that help authorities and communities compare future pathways and manage difficult trade-offs. Strategic foresight will be used to explore long-term uncertainties, stress-test policy options and support preparedness for extreme, cascading and compound futures.

NAFAS multidisciplinary consortium combines expertise in hydrology, water quality, regulated rivers, energy systems, climate impact modelling, Earth observation, cryosphere monitoring, geospatial analytics, artificial intelligence, system dynamics modelling, environmental governance, policy analysis, human geography, Indigenous research infrastructures, stakeholder engagement and strategic foresight. The consortium is led by the University of Oulu and brings together the Finnish Environment Institute, Åbo Akademi University, the Finnish Geospatial Research Institute, the Finland Futures Research Centre at the University of Turku, and the Sámi Education Institute in Inari. This combination enables NAFAS to generate integrated, actionable and socially legitimate solutions for Arctic governance.

Interaction is an integral element throughout the project. NAFAS will engage Sámi institutions, municipalities, regional authorities, national ministries, hydropower and energy actors, reindeer herding organizations, fisheries, tourism actors, environmental authorities, civil society and local communities through Living Labs, participatory modelling, stakeholder workshops, policy dialogues, training activities and accessible communication. The project will work closely with knowledge users to ensure that monitoring systems, models, scenarios and decision-support tools respond to real governance needs and can be used in concrete planning and policy processes.

NAFAS will adhere to the principles of responsible science throughout the project. Research involving Sámi communities will follow the Ethical Guidelines for Research Involving the Sámi People in Finland and will respect Sámi self-determination, free, prior and informed consent, and culturally appropriate knowledge practices. The project will address power asymmetries in knowledge production, protect sensitive Indigenous and community-based knowledge, and ensure fair return of results to participating communities. NAFAS will promote equality, non-discrimination, transparency and open science through responsible data management, open-access publications where possible, reusable model outputs and accessible communication, while respecting both FAIR and CARE principles. Through its focus on sustainable resource governance, climate preparedness, inclusive decision-making and institutional learning, NAFAS contributes to long-term ecological, social and strategic resilience in the Finnish Arctic.