Press release

Increasing threats can change attitudes – new research on Finnish views on NATO, national security and wartime solidarity

Warfare and security policy are often perceived as distant matters reserved for political decision-makers and military experts. However, as the security situation in the world changes, attitudes on defence, military cooperation and international alliances are also affected. An approaching threat can make us reconsider our existing perceptions.

How are citizens’ attitudes regarding security policy shaped in times of geopolitical uncertainty? This issue is at the heart of Albert Weckman’s doctoral dissertation in political science at Åbo Academy University. In his work, Weckman examines how the public opinion in Finland has changed in the shadow of war.

The dissertation focuses on three issues: public support for NATO, willingness to resist foreign aggression, and support for providing military aid to allied nations under attack. The study is based on extensive surveys carried out in Finland over several years.

Despite extensive research into security policy, we still know relatively little about the mechanisms behind public attitudes, especially outside the major Western military powers or in smaller European democracies. Existing research is heavily dominated by studies based on U.S. data, often overlooking the impact of different national situations and regional threats on public opinion. By focusing on Finland, a small democratic state with a conscription-based defence system, a long history of military non-alignment and a shared border with Russia, Weckman’s dissertation introduces new perspectives on the topic.

Weckman’s research shows that the Finnish support for NATO is markedly linked to the current perceived threats. During periods of relative stability, the public opinion on NATO has traditionally reflected a cautious and fragmented approach. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, support for NATO increased rapidly as the threat was perceived as acute and tangible.

Research also shows that material factors play an important role in people’s willingness to defend the nation. Citizens who have more to lose, such as an apartment, holiday home or other assets, are more often ready to defend the country, especially when the surrounding world is perceived as insecure. Moreover, the study shows that Finns with a strong emotional attachment to Europe tend to support the sending of military aid to NATO allies under attack.  This underscores the role of identity and solidarity in shaping attitudes toward collective defence.

– The Finnish attitude on defence and security is not just shaped by what politicians and the media say. The citizens’ opinions are strongly influenced by factors such as their own experiences, what they stand to lose, identity and solidarity, and the perceived severity of the threat. When these views are shared by many, they can set a framework for what is politically possible and, in some cases, help to steer security-policy decisions in a new direction, Albert Weckman explains.

According to Weckman, the study highlights how important it is for policy makers to take public opinion into consideration when developing defence strategies. In a world of increasing political, financial and military uncertainty, public support is crucial in order to ensure the functionality and sustainability of security policy in the long term.

Albert Weckman defended his thesis Public Opinion in the Shadow of War: Attitudes on National Security in a Small Democratic State on 13 May 2026.

Contact information:

Albert Weckman, researcher, Åbo Akademi University
albert.weckman@abo.fi
+358 50 345 5599