10 Software reliability: measurement and prediction


A. Törn - Contents - - Previous chapter - Next chapter - - Previous page - Next page
Software reliability is a key high-level attribute. The chapter addresses the software-reliability growth problem: i.e., estimating and predicting the reliability of a program as faults are identified and attempts made to fix them. We just summarize the topics treated.

The quantitative methods used date back to early 1970s, evolving from hardvare reliability. The reliability theory rests on probability theory.

Models for estimating mean time to failure (MTTF) are presented. Reliability growth occurs if MTTF increases. Also the problem of accuracy of predictions is treated. Recalibration of the model and the stability of the operational environment are key elements. The models should be applied only to systems with modest reliability requirements.

Beacause the technique is probabilistic we cannot guarantee a prescribed level of reliability assurance in a particular case. Therefore other techniques have been considered for systems where ultra-high reliability is required:

Fenton & Pfleeger: "In the absence of proven methods of assuring ultra-high software reliability levels, it is surprising to find that systems are being built whose safe functioning relies upon their achievement".